Economy

Economic growth forecast revised down in Taiwan

The DGBAS forecasts Taiwan’s Consumer Price Index to increase 1.84 percent in 2012, down 0.1 percentage point from earlier estimates. (CNA)

• Publication Date：05/28/2012
• Source： Taiwan Today
• By  Aaron Hsu

The gross domestic product of Taiwan is expected to grow 3.03 percent in 2012, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics announced May 25, revising its April forecast of 3.38 percent down slightly.

The adjustment was due largely to the poor performance of Taiwan’s exports sector in the first quarter of the year, the agency said, adding that increases in the price of gas and electricity could further slow down economic growth.

“Exports in electronics, information and communications technology products, as well as optical and plastic goods in the first three months of 2012 shrank by about 4 percent compared to the same period last year,” said Tsai Hung-kun, DGBAS director of statistics.

“In addition, though the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.1 percent, the average salary has not increased enough to boost consumer spending,” the director said.

According to the DGBAS, the average monthly salary of Taiwan workers stood at NT$41,298 (US$1,395) in March, up 0.87 percent year on year.

Private consumption was forecast to increase 2.03 percent by year-end, while investments in the private sector are expected to expand by only 0.52 percent, the DGBAS noted.

The agency said a plan announced by ROC President Ma Ying-jeou to raise electricity prices in three increments over several months—rather than all at once in May, as was originally announced—would help dampen inflationary pressures.

The Consumer Price Index is expected to increase by 1.84 percent in 2012, 0.1 of a percentage point lower than last month’s forecast, according to the DGBAS.

Other government measures such as transport subsidies and tariff reductions on imports will also help to stabilize the CPI, Tsai said.

Other Asian economies are also expected to have relatively modest GDP growth this year, the DGBAS said, citing estimates from IHS Global Insight Inc., an international market analysis company based in the U.S.

In 2012, the economies of Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea are forecast to grow by 3.5 percent, 2.5 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, the DGBAS said. (HZW)

Write to Aaron Hsu at cwhsu01@mail.mofa.gov.tw