Commentary

President charts new direction for Taipei-Beijing relations

• Publication Date：06/12/2009
• Source： Taiwan Today
• By  Dennis V. Hickey

Many political analysts contend that the external behavior of a state is best explained by the structure of the international system. For example, whether the global system is bipolar or multi-polar is believed to heavily influence a state’s behavior.

But others focus on internal considerations such as governmental structure, institutions and domestic political forces and contend that these variables are the primary determinants of policy. Still others argue that the personality and beliefs of a particular state’s leader is the most critical factor. There is evidence to suggest that this last observation applies with special force to Taiwan.

Taiwan’s leaders can and do make a big difference. One needs only to examine the recent developments in cross-strait relations to underscore this point. To be sure, things have changed.

Following Ma Ying-jeou’s election in 2008, relations between Taipei and Beijing have moved forward. The new president promptly endorsed the “1992 consensus” and negotiations between Taiwan’s semi-official Straits Exchange Foundation and Beijing’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait re-opened for the first time in a decade.

The two bodies agreed to focus on economic matters first and to set aside thorny issues relating to sovereignty and Taiwan’s international space. They quickly hammered out a transportation pact that would allow regular “weekend charter flights” to cross the Taiwan Strait beginning July 4, 2008.

Moreover, a separate tourism agreement was signed enabling more mainland Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan. In November 2008, the two sides negotiated a pact providing for direct cross-strait shipping, daily cross-strait flights and improved postal services and food safety. In April 2009, representatives signed a series of accords designed to fight crime, establish a financial cooperation mechanism and more than double the number of cross-strait passenger flights. In past weeks, businessmen from the Chinese mainland have traveled to Taiwan to negotiate billions of dollars in trade and investment deals.

It is not an exaggeration to suggest that relations between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan are at their best in decades. The two sides appear to have agreed to a “diplomatic truce” whereby they will stop competing for each other’s diplomatic allies. Furthermore, they have agreed that Taipei may participate in World Health Organization activities under the name “Chinese Taipei.” On April 29, 2009, Taipei confirmed that it would attend the annual meeting of the World Health Assembly—the decision-making body for the WHO—as “Chinese Taipei.” Chinese mainland authorities explained that the new stance “shows our goodwill to achieve practical benefits for Taiwan’s people and indicates our sincerity to promote peaceful development of cross-strait relations.”

With respect to security issues, Ma has ordered the ROC military to halt production of a new generation of Hsiung Feng 2E (Brave Wind) cruise missiles capable of hitting high-profile targets on the Chinese mainland and announced cuts in troop levels. Furthermore, there are reports that officials in Beijing are discussing the “gradual” removal of the ballistic missiles deployed directly opposite Taiwan. In fact, the issue has even been raised on the mainland’s China Central Television talk shows. The two sides are also mulling over the possibility of military exchanges between senior-level officers.

Ma’s initiatives enjoy widespread support in Taiwan. Over 108 public opinion polls show that a vast majority of the population approves of the easing of tensions with the mainland and believes that opening to mainland China can boost Taiwan’s economy. The new approach has also received praise from the international community.

For example, U.S. President Barack Obama has stated that he strongly supports efforts by the two sides to “resolve their differences peacefully and through dialogue.” Dennis Blair, U.S. National Intelligence director, has described the increasingly warm relationship between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland as “positive” and “very encouraging.” And Raymond Burghardt, chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, declared during his recent visit to Taipei that, “we really and truly are enthusiastic about the kind of stability we now see.” U.S. officials have even offered to host military-to-military discussions between Beijing and Taipei.

The recent changes in attitudes in Taipei and Beijing could conceivably represent a genuine paradigm shift in cross-strait relations. No one predicted that so much could be accomplished in such a short time. To be sure, many challenges remain and the road to any sort of durable and lasting reconciliation could prove to be bumpy at times. But one thing is clear. Namely, the president has charted a new direction for Taipei’s relations with the Chinese mainland. Like each of his predecessors, Ma is much more than a passive agent who responds to external events, situations or shifts in the international system. This is a leader who is determined to make a difference.

—Dennis V. Hickey is the James F. Morris Professor of Political Science at Missouri State University. These views are the author’s and not necessarily those of “Taiwan Today.” Copyright © 2009 by Dennis V. Hickey

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