FeaturesLocal elections to test Taiwan’s mood
The future shape of Taiwan’s political landscape and the roles of the ruling Kuomintang and opposition Democratic Progressive Party may well hinge on the outcomes of the upcoming local elections, according to a leading political science academic from National Taiwan University. “The result of the year-end elections, to a large extent, might become a catalyst for significant changes to Taiwan’s party politics,” said Chao Yung-mau, dean of NTU’s School of Social Sciences Nov. 18. “Equally crucial, there is a strong likelihood that the elections will also be a bellwether for next year’s municipal elections and the 2012 legislative and presidential contests as well.” Eligible voters in 17 of Taiwan’s 23 counties and provincial municipalities will elect magistrates and mayors, city and county councilors, and city and township heads in the Dec. 5 elections. Six other cities and counties—Taipei County, Taichung City and County, Tainan City and County, Kaohsiung County—will be upgraded or merged into municipalities and hold elections, with Taipei City and Kaohsiung City following suit next year. A total of 54 hopefuls have thrown their hats in the ring for the 17 city and county elections, according to the Cabinet-level Central Election Commission. In addition, some 942 and 476 candidates have registered to run for 573 and 211 seats in the city and county councilors and city and township heads elections respectively. Chao believes that the local elections favor the KMT given its control of central government and long-term dominance of Taiwan’s local political scene. “However, this advantage enjoyed by the KMT could count for naught as the party has performed poorly in key policy areas and failed to remedy Taiwan’s sluggish economy. Its glaring shortcomings in the wake of Typhoon Morakot were also damning.” At present, the KMT holds 11 out of 17 city and county magistrate seats. The DPP has three, with the remainder shared between the New Party, People First Party and an independent. The ascendency of the KMT as a gainer in local-level politics can also be seen in the distribution of seats by party affiliation in the city and county councils and township heads. Chao noted that President Ma Ying-jeou’s lack of familiarity with central and southern Taiwan’s politics might prove an Achilles’ heel for his party’s campaign strategy. “Ma’s ‘greenness’ when it comes to local power distribution has led to the unsuccessful attempt to eliminate factionalism from the elections. This has made his party suffer deeply in the quagmire of factional politics.” Chao said that the KMT should have stood a strong chance of regaining DPP-controlled Chiayi, Pingtung and Yunlin counties. “But Ma’s ignorance and lack of vision when it came to working with local factions, and his failure to tackle corruption at the ballot box, resulted in the 'wrong' candidates being nominated. This will probably cost the KMT dearly come election day.” Moreover, as the KMT seems incapable of sounding a consistent voice within its factions, the local academic said party mavericks in counties such as Kinmen, Hualien and Hsinchu have sought to run against KMT-endorsed candidates. “Such a situation might set the stage for a backlash that would see the DPP pick up more seats in the elections.” Regarding the DPP’s strategy of dubbing the elections “a mid-term exam for Ma,” Chao noted that the December contest should not be seen as a test for the president. “Winning local elections depends mainly on the image of individual candidates and their popularity, administrative experience and campaign efforts, rather than a party’s national political strategy.” Chao said that the KMT’s election campaign theme of “working together to rebuild Taiwan” promoted different issues locally with the central government playing a supplementary role. “Of course, Ma’s charisma and his administration’s overall performance are essential to winning the KMT vote,” he said. “But these are still comparatively less important than the candidates’ previous administrative experiences and skills as demonstrated in their constituencies.” According to Chao, the DPP has put its campaign focus exclusively on bread-and-butter issues, along with the perception that Taiwan’s dignity has been denigrated in light of Ma’s rapprochement with Beijing. This strategy is expected to appeal to voters from the middle and lower classes. “As far as the DPP is concerned, issues such as the cross-strait memorandums of understanding on financial supervisory cooperation, the inking of the proposed economic framework agreement and the agreements signed between Taiwan’s Strait Exchange Foundation and mainland’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait will only benefit capitalist classes such as financial, banking and high-technology industries, as opposed to middle and working classes,” Chao said. “This is a sentiment shared by voters who feel the KMT has lost touch with average families, particularly those from central and southern Taiwan,” Chao said. He warned that swing voters might switch their support to the DPP, which has vehemently championed social welfare issues involving unemployment and welfare-improving policies. But despite the DPP’s excellence in manipulating newsworthy issues, Chao believes that the ruling KMT still stands a greater chance of winning the elections as it enjoys the almost unassailable advantage of administrative resources. According to KMT Vice Chairman Chan Chun-po, his party is looking to win 14 county magistrate seats and is confident of victory in at least 11. DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen is less optimistic, with the outcome of the elections seen as a real test of her leadership mettle. Tsai declined to predict the results but said that the DPP is expected to retain Chiayi, Pingtung and Yunlin counties. “Our candidate in Yilan County enjoys a narrow lead over the rest of the field. There is also hope for the DPP candidate in Taitung County.” “However, Ma should waste no time reviewing his political strategy from stem to stern,” Chao said. “Redressing the imbalance between the north and the south is of great urgency for the KMT. Consolidating and strengthening its local support base is everything if the KMT aspires to remain in power in 2012.” (JSM) Write to Chiayi Ho at chiayi@mail.gio.gov.tw
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