RESEARCHERS PREDICT
New gains
Three U.S. economic-research organizations predict a moderate recovery for most Asian countries in 1982 but are divided on how the region's growth leader will fare, the Asian Wall Street Journal reports.
Chase Econometrics Associates Inc., Bank of America’s Economics Policy Research Department, and Data Resources Inc. concur on expectations of higher growth in Japan, Australia and South Korea. But the forecasters have differing estimates on others.
Chase and Data Resources disagree on Taiwan. Chase predicts that growth will rise to 8.9 percent from 5.6 percent while Data Resources expects a drop to 5.2 percent from 5.5 percent.
Chase predicts that Hong Kong’s inflation-adjusted growth will fall to 8.4 percent from 10 percent in 1981. But the colony's economic expansion could rebound to double figures in 1983, says the chief Asian analyst of the Chase Manhattan Corp. unit.
Data Resources says some negative factors, including high interest rates and declining tourism revenue, could carry over into 1982 and lower Hong Kong’s growth to between 6 percent and 8 percent.
Although Bank of America and Chase see Singapore improving on its 1981 growth, Data Resources expects the country's economic expansion to drop to 8 percent in 1982 from the 10 percent the research firm estimates for 1981.
Overall, the three research groups don't differ significantly in their regional forecasts. They expect most free-market Asian countries to recover in 1982 or 1983 from the global economic slump.
Bank of America predicts that inflation in most Asian countries will fall or remain at 1981 levels. It says that only Australia, South Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong will continue to experience double-digit consumer price increases. In Korea's case, the Bankamerica Corp. Unit expects inflation to subside to 18 percent next year from 24 percent in 1981.
Bank of America expects Singapore to have the lowest 1982 inflation in Asia, 4 percent. Data Resources predicts prices in Singapore wil1 rise 7 percent in 1982, down from 9.5 percent in 1981.
Other countries for which Bank of America expects low inflation in 1982 are Red China, 5 percent, Japan, 5.5 percent, and Malaysia, 6 percent.
Data Resources is somewhat less optimistic, for instance it forecasts Philippine inflation of 12.8 percent, while Bank of America's reading is 9 percent.
Al1 three research units are bullish on South Korea. Chase predicts 7.6 percent growth for 1982, up from 6.5 percent in 1981. Data Resources sees 7.5 percent expansion and Bank of America 7 percent.
After Singapore, Indonesia is expected to grow fastest among the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The three firms each predict 1982 Indonesian growth of at least 7 percent. For 1983, Data Resources sees 8 percent to 9 percent growth if a reviving world economy stimulates demand for the country's oil and natural gas.
Bank of America predicts Malaysian growth will increase slightly next year, to 6.7 percent.
ROC OIL FINDS POSSIBLE
Asia's energy needs will more than double in the next decade, saddling most economies with huge import debts and heavy investments to develop fuel resources, the Asian Development Bank reports.
It also said that Taiwan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Papua New Guinea and Vietnam may find some exploitable oil deposits in the future.
The Manila-based bank conducted a six-month survey of energy problems in the region, results of which are contained in a 363-page report.
According to the bank, the energy problem of its developing member countries has three dimensions:
˙Increasing foreign exchange burden because of increased oil prices;
˙High costs of developing alternative indigenous energy resources;
˙Further depletion of non-commercial energy resources in rural areas because of the high costs of substitute fuels.
"Overall, the projections imply that commercial energy use will increase by about 140 percent between 1978 and 1990, from 128 mil1ion tons of oil equivalent (T.O.E.) to 307 million T.O.E., representing an average rate of increase of 7.6 percent per annum," the bank said.
The bank said there would be increased substitution of petroleum products by other fuels late in the 1980s, particularly in Taiwan and Hong Kong.
But it said that overall, petroleum product consumption is still expected to increase from 100 million T.O.E. in 1978 to 200 mil1ion T.O.E. in 1990.
The bank said that investment needs for commercial production of energy such as electric power, petroleum, coal and natural gas in the developing countries of Asia would reach US$125 billion for the period 1980-1990.
Of the investment requirement, Taiwan, South Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines would account for 60 percent.
The bank said the immediate and most pressing problem is that of securing adequate supplies of oil. Only Indonesia and Malaysia are substantial oil producers.